Surely some of you have had a mini heart attack when reading apocalyptic headlines like “giant asteroid is dangerously close to Earth”. Rest easy! Because NASA has laid its cards on the table and confirmed that asteroid 2024 YR4 is not going to ruin our planet in 2032.
When scientists detected this space rock in December 2024, all the alarms went off. The first calculations indicated a minimal possibility of impact in the future, enough for the scientific community to frown and start worrying. But, after fine-tuning the numbers, experts have determined that the probability of collision is almost zero: we are talking about a 99.9983% certainty that it will continue on its way without causing us any problems. So if you were thinking of cancelling your plans for 2032, you can now continue with your normal life.
How was the threat ruled out?
Let’s get down to business: How did we go from “maybe” to “don’t worry, everything’s fine”? More observations, better calculations, and of course, state-of-the-art telescopes like the ones we already have.
Astronomers have been watching this asteroid night and day, collecting data with the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and other observatories. As they obtained more images and refined the trajectories, they realized that asteroid 2024 YR4 was not heading directly toward us. Wow, thanks to the tireless investigations of our researchers, we can breathe easy.
Was the asteroid big enough?
Well, it’s not exactly a pebble. 2024 YR4 is between 40 and 90 meters in diameter, about the size of a large apartment block. It’s not gigantic enough to cause a dinosaur-style mass extinction, but if it were to hit an inhabited area, let’s just say it wouldn’t be a good day for that city. The good thing is that not only is Earth out of danger, but even the Moon has a minimal chance of getting hit. So, the asteroid has decided it’s not going to bother anyone.
The importance of a good research team
This scare reminds us how important it is to have a good space surveillance team. The James Webb Telescope, along with other ground-based and space-based observatories, has been closely following the asteroid’s trajectory to make sure there are no nasty surprises in the future.
And this is where technology shines: the combination of telescopes such as the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope, the Subaru Telescope and the Haleakala-Faulkes Telescope North has made it possible to fine-tune the precision of the calculations. Thanks to them, we know that this asteroid will pass us by and that we can sleep peacefully for the next few years (for now).
What does this asteroid teach us?
Beyond the anecdote, this chapter reminds us of how important astronomical surveillance is, because it is not only about knowing whether an asteroid is going to impact or not, but about understanding how these objects behave and improving our detection and prevention methods in time. The famous Torino Scale, which measures the risk of asteroid impact, has already lowered the rating of 2024 YR4 to 0 out of 10.
Science continues to advance and, thanks to it, we can detect, analyse and rule out threats with increasing precision. Scientists will not take their eyes off this asteroid in the coming months to be 100% sure that we are not in danger. So the next time you read that an asteroid is approaching, you know: wait for confirmation from NASA before running!