When Trump and Putin talk… The world watches (because there’s nothing else we can do). And maybe you didn’t know it, but both leaders will met again in Alaska next Friday, and many experts are shaking…
They compare this meeting to the Munich Conference of 1938, when Europe gave the Sudetenland to Hitler (what a comparison…). Today, more than eight decades later, the fear is exactly the same: that the future of Ukraine (and by extension, the security of the continent) is being negotiated behind Europe’s back.
Swedish analyst Stefan Hedlund, from the Institute for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Uppsala University, warns that the situation is going unnoticed and is not being analyzed with the seriousness it requires! According to him, European leaders have been left out of a dialogue that defines Ukraine’s fate, while the United States takes the lead in a peace deal with Russia.
Hedlund goes further and reminds us that, for Putin and his allies, Europe and NATO are in the line of fire with Ukraine (and have been for more than two years). Even so, European capitals seem to be underestimating the scale of what is being discussed in Alaska.
Europe in the shadow of the negotiations
It’s important to know that Europe spent three times more on Russian oil than on supporting Ukraine in 2024… And that’s with sanctions in place! Russian crude continues to arrive to the continent through countries like India, feeding a dependency that leaves Europe in a very vulnerable position… So they ned Russia in some way.
Hedlund quotes Lenin to describe the situation (wow) “the capitalists will sell us the rope with which we will hang them”, and this metaphor reflects the contradiction of a Europe that indirectly funds the war threatening to reach its own borders…
A new world order… without Europe?
Another British researcher, Peter Pomerantsev (born in the Soviet Union), also shares his thoughts. According to him, Putin’s real goal is to build a tripolar world order, dominated by the United States, Russia, and China. In that scheme, Europe doesn’t show up as a major power! Are we really seeing the rise of a new world order where Europe has no place?
The scenario analysts are worried about
If Trump and Putin reach an agreement in Alaska, the message will be clear: major global deals are made outside Europe… And Europe is no longer what it used to be. A sense of isolation and geopolitical irrelevance for the European Union, right at the moment when the war in Ukraine demands a much firmer stance.
The ghost of Munich
The reference to the Munich Conference of 1938 isn’t random. Back then, European powers believed that giving up territory would guarantee peace… The result was the start of World War II just a few years later, maybe it was not a good idea…
Today, the big question is if Europe is repeating that same historic mistake by letting Washington and Moscow decide Kiev’s future without including Brussels. Are we repeating history unconsciously, or are European leaders simply not realizing it?
The lesson
If Ukraine loses and Putin comes out on top, Europe will be next on Russia’s list to keep advancing.
This meeting in Alaska between Trump and Putin isn’t just a diplomatic one. For many, it’s the beginning of a new geopolitical game board where Europe runs the risk of being sidelined! With energy spending still benefiting Russia and internal divisions within the European Union, the continent is facing a situation that experts describe as a true “nightmare scenario”. We’ll have to wait until Friday to know what these two men decide… but it’s not looking good.