How many times have we read that the world was going to end, countless theories, and yet here we are.
Now a study from Harvard University has put on the table a scientific method from the seventies that estimated that humanity would enter a social collapse near 2040, just as MIT predicted in 1972 with its famous report Limits to Growth.
The model, backed at the time by the Club of Rome, combined three factors that are today a reality: the increase of population, uncontrolled consumption of resources and the pressure of pollution on ecosystems, mmm, sounds familiar. Half a century later, new figures show that we are still on the same path they described forty years ago: unchecked growth, inequality and ecosystems at the limit.
A model ahead of its time?
In 1972, a group of MIT researchers used computer systems that were pioneering at the time to create a mathematical model. They focused on five key factors, which were population, industrialization, pollution, agricultural production and non-renewable resources.
This way, if growth continued unchecked, by 2040 a point of total tension would be reached that would cause a breakdown, meaning a decline in agricultural and industrial production and, as a consequence, a collapse in human well-being.
The current research, led by economist Gaya Herrington from Harvard, confirms that today’s data resemble too much those projections…
Do they confirm the forecast?
Herrington compared current records of fertility, life expectancy, energy consumption and pollution levels with the curves of the original model. And to no one’s surprise, they match almost exactly.
The most worrying indicators are the depletion of fresh water, deforestation, biodiversity loss and the constant increase of greenhouse gases. The report does not speak of a sudden end, but of a progressive decline in the system.
Room for change
Herrington insists that there is still room to change course if we commit to a sustainable and regenerative growth model. That would imply transforming the way of producing and consuming energy, redesigning agriculture, investing in efficiency and, above all, breaking with the idea that the economy can grow indefinitely… Wasn’t anyone warning that the capitalist system could end in tragedy?
“A change is still possible, but the window is closing quickly,” warns Herrington.
Not the first time we fear the end of the world
Humanity has always feared its end. In the year 1000, many believed the Apocalypse would come with the change of the millennium. In 1910, the passing of Halley’s comet sparked panic.
Maybe you are too young, but the famous “Y2K effect” unleashed fears about a global computer failure, and in 2012 the theories about the Mayan calendar filled headlines with predictions of catastrophe.
The big difference is that the MIT model is not based on superstitions, but on scientific data and mathematical projections.
Science, politics and sustainability
The MIT report delivers a serious warning. The planet cannot sustain forever an economic model based on extracting resources without limit. We have to change the concept of progress. It is not enough to measure it in terms of GDP, we must also speak of quality of life, social justice and respect for the natural limits of the planet. If it is not done, the risk is that collapse will arrive much sooner than we think.
If we do not change soon, the social collapse in 2040 will cease to be a hypothesis to become a fact. Wait for the disaster or act now… And no, it is not just any myth, it is the result of our way of living. We’re still on time, let’s change our own history.