Gold is back in the news in international markets, and after rising 27% in 2024, so far in 2025 it has already accumulated close to a 40% increase and has reached 3,700 dollars per troy ounce!
And analysts do not rule out that it will cross the 4,000 dollar barrier before the end of the year, and firms like Goldman Sachs even talk about 5,000$!!
Yes, it seems like good news, but only at first glance, because behind this rise there are signals we could be talking about debts, inflation that does not ease and a global economy that is increasingly fragile…
What are troy ounces?
It is the measure used to weigh gold and silver, and it is specifically for these two materials. It is not like measuring sugar when you are going to make a glaze, this one weighs 31.1 grams compared to the 28.3 of the normal ounce and the idea was to use an exact measure for these metals without having problems with other metric systems, that is why they are called that.
Why is gold skyrocketing?
Gold has always had the reputation of being a refuge in difficult times, and now it proves it again.
The debt that does not stop growing
Expert Clemens Schömann-Finck (creator of René Will Rendite) believes that public debt in many Western countries is at such high levels that just the interest already eats up a huge part of the budgets. Then, to avoid greater harm, central banks keep interest rates very low. But of course, this decision fuels inflation and devalues the value of money.
Inflation and the fear of what is coming
Inflation continues to be a trending topic in central banks… And now that we are in “crisis”, and with the various open fronts among which the War in Ukraine and the situation in Gaza with the genocide perpetrated by the Israeli state stand out, they make the world live even more in economic uncertainty.
And we already know, when the situation wobbles, gold continues to be an option of economic refuge.
Factors of the rise
But it is not only about debt or inflation, there are several factors that are causing this:
For example, in 2024 central banks bought more than 1,000 tons of gold. China, India and Turkey led the trend and, for now, nothing indicates that they will stop doing so in 2025.
On the other hand, wars and diplomatic tensions only reinforce the idea that the tangible is safer than any currency. And gold, by tradition, is the refuge asset that humans (and states) have.
In our country, both the fiscal deficit and the debt are another of our weak points. The more doubts the dollar generates as a reference currency, the more attractive gold becomes.
How far can it go?
Today the ounce is around 3,700 dollars, but the question is how far it can climb.
- JP Morgan points to a ceiling close to 3,900 dollars.
- Goldman Sachs talks about a scenario of up to 5,000.
- Other more ambitious analysts suggest a range between 4,800 and 6,500 by 2030.
In any case, forecasts agree that the rise is not over yet.
Refuge or symptom of something worse…?
Gold has always shined in times of war or recession, and this time will not be the exception. But this time the speed of the climb reflects more fear than economic strength… Many experts believe that we are facing a signal that chronic inflation is coming…
The warning is there, now it will have to be the states that “arm” themselves (metaphorically, please, we do not want more wars) to be able to propose a solution to possible future crises…