The Pentagon has decided to suspend military assistance to the countries that border Russia, it is not a total withdrawal but it comes at a rather delicate moment: just when Moscow intensifies its provocations in European airspace… And it is that several Russian fighters (MIG-31) have flown over Estonian airspace and the Gulf of Finland, remaining twelve minutes in territory that does not belong to them. USA believes that the Kremlin is testing NATO’s limits and does not want to give in.
The Pentagon announcement
According to U.S. officials, it is not a total withdrawal of their support, but a change in the dynamics of collaboration. From Europe they believe that this announcement generates uncertainty because U.S. assistance has been key to reinforcing NATO’s eastern flank and now it would be more exposed, especially when Poland or Romania have experienced incursions of Russian planes and drones…
As we told you at the beginning of this article, the latest incident took place over the Gulf of Finland, where three fighters entered Estonian airspace and remained there for more than ten minutes. Is it a provocation? It is.
Russia increases the pressure
In recent months, Russian drones have crossed other borders as well, forcing these countries (Poland and Romania) to deploy their fighters and their air forces “just in case.” Analysts agree that Russia is following a clear strategy which is to probe NATO’s limits and check how far they are willing to respond for their Eastern European allies.
The Pentagon sees it coming, so it sends a “double” message: it wants to show that its commitment to Europe does not disappear, but it also pressures from its side for European governments to strengthen their own military autonomy.
Eastern Europe on alert
The countries directly exposed to the Russian threat do not know how to respond. In Estonia local media warn that Moscow is hardening its stance and its population feels that they are continuously exposed to risks… From Poland they demand clarity on how security will be guaranteed if Washington reduces its involvement in the territory. And Romania trusts that cooperation within NATO will be enough (although it does not seem so).
NATO’s role under the microscope
The Pentagon announcement puts NATO in a somewhat uncomfortable position. Its mission is to protect all its members, but this change of course forces a rethink of the balance between cooperation and the capacity of each country to defend its own defense. Internal debates are going to open, but they need a European army that is independent from Washington.
And now?
For the moment, European foreign ministries maintain caution and prudence, high-level meetings are expected in the coming days in which it will be possible to analyze what is going to happen from now on, if some programs are going to be cut or which ones are going to remain active.
What changes now?
It is now Europe’s turn to move, they will have to coordinate within NATO and prioritize their movements to maintain deterrence on the Russian border. For the governments directly affected, they will have to strengthen their autonomy while this situation is clarified and shield themselves as best they can, daddy USA is not always going to be there to save them.
For citizens, keep an eye on the sky because they will see allied aircraft flying overhead.
We will have to wait for the meetings to know how this alliance will proceed and what the response will be.